How Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Denise Hill
Denise Hill

A quantum physicist and data analyst passionate about merging cutting-edge science with practical betting insights.