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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.